Well, what'd ya know? The polls were right, after all. Looks like I owe The New York Times an apology, along with Atlas Intel, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, CBS, and NBC. In the end, they were far more accurate in predicting the 2026 midterms than the Republican pollsters that supposedly were able to capture those "reluctant" Trump voters who show up on Election Day and ruin everything. If anything, they underestimated the anti-Trump sentiment in the electorate; in some cases by as much as 3-4 points.
I thought going in that there were three likely outcomes for Democrats: a tsunami, a wave or an undertow. In the House, I figured a range of 218 to 235 seats was possible; while in the Senate I had the number of seats between 48 and 54. As we speak, Democrats have won 255 seats, and are currently leading in five more. In the Senate, they currently hold 54 seats and are ahead in two more. 260 seats in the House and 56 in the Senate. Tell me you had that on your Bingo card.
This was a wipe out. This was a repudiation. Pure and simple. Consider the following:
For only the fourth time since World War II the party that held the White House lost both chambers of Congress in a midterm. The other three were 1946, 1994, and 2006. Additionally, the generic ballot of D+11.6 is the largest for a midterm ever recorded. To put that in perspective, it was D+7.9 in '06.
Democrats increased their share of the vote by 28 points among Hispanics and 9 points among Blacks, erasing the gains made by Republicans in the '24 presidential election.
So dominant was the Party's performance, that their top three candidates - James Talarico, Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper would've won their races without a single Election Day vote.
Despite Republican attempts to gerrymander some 15 districts in order to increase or maintain their majority, Democrats managed to retain all but two. Nowhere was this effort more futile than in Texas, where the GOP saw their majority shrink from 25 seats down to 24. In Florida, Democrats held all four of the districts Republicans redrew. According to the Cook Political Report, they won every "Likely D", "Lean D" and "Toss Up" seat, as well as 7 of 18 "Lean R", 7 of 17 "Likely R" and 2 "Solid R" seats.
In addition to their gains in Congress, Democrats also secured trifectas in the following states: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona; the latter hasn't happened in 60 years. Democrats now control the governors mansion in 28 states, up from 23. Before the week is out, that number could grow to 29.
In Texas, which was ground zero in this midterm, Democrats flipped a Senate seat, the governor and lieutenant governorships, the state House, the Board of Education, the attorney general, four seats on the state Supreme Court, three seats on the Court of Criminal Appeals, three seats on the Court of Appeals, Controller, agricultural commissioner, land commissioner, railroad commissioner, and Tarrant County executive and district attorney. They fell just four Senate seats shy of a trifecta.
This was the most diverse field of Democrats ever to run for office. Americans elected the first African American female governor (Georgia); the first Native American governor (Nevada); the first Latina governor (Texas); the first Native American Senator (Minnesota); the first Muslim Senator (Michigan), and the first openly gay senator (New Hampshire). Democrats ran centrist candidates in states like Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia, and progressive candidates in states like Texas, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio, and they still won.
So what happened? How did this tsunami get started?
To quote James Carville, it's the economy, stupid. Turns out people don't like paying $4.30 a gallon for regular and $6.30 a gallon for diesel. The principal reason for the rise is gas prices is the Iran War, which Donald Trump started, and which has no end in sight. Between that and the tariffs, Americans are paying an average of $50 more per week than they did a year ago; money that many of them don't have.
Secondly, while a majority of Americans support a secure border, they recoil at the sight of ICE agents ripping people who have lived here for decades out of their homes and places of business, and then deporting them to countries they've never seen and don't know. These raids have led to several innocent protesters being murdered, yes murdered.
And lastly, while many people are suffering, Trump spent the last few weeks of the campaign talking about his ballroom, commenting on the attractiveness of Republican candidates asses, and bragging about how much money the tariffs have brought in and how much profit the oil industry is making. The lack of empathy is stunning, but not surprising. He literally chose the Reflecting Pool to deliver his final midterm address to the nation.
As usual, Agent Orange took no responsibility for the pain he has caused millions of Americans and the damage he wrought on his own party. In fact, he blamed virtually everyone but himself, including the very candidates he endorsed, all of whom lost. Maybe John Cornyn would've fared no better against Talarico than Ken Paxton, but someone other than Darline Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy likely would've won in South Carolina and Ohio respectively.
The moral of the story is that candidates matter. The Democrats simply had a much stronger bench than the Republicans and it showed. When you factor in the mood of the electorate, this was a disaster waiting to happen.
So now what?
On January 3, Democrats will control both houses. While Trump is still President, they will have the power of the purse and the power to issue subpoenas. They must use both. They need to cut off funding for the Iran War and force the administration to negotiate a peaceful settlement; one that will open up the Strait of Hormuz and allow the oil to flow.
Regarding the tariffs, Trump boasted that they've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars. If that's true, where's the money? And why do we still have a $1.97 trillion deficit? Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution says that only Congress has the authority to impose tariffs. Every single tariff that Trump has imposed must be rescinded and the money given back to the consumers who paid it.
A year ago, Republicans let the Affordable Care Act subsidies expire. As a result, millions of people had to choose between paying higher premiums or going without coverage altogether. It is imperative that they pass a bill that restores those subsidies. Even if Trump vetoes it, just passing it will signal to the country whose side they're on and whose side Trump is on.
Democrats must avoid passing bills like Medicare for All that not only have no chance of becoming law but will allow the GOP to define them as European socialists going into 2028. And while we're at it, they must also resist the temptation to impeach Trump. Not because he isn't corrupt, but because an impeachment trial will only make him stronger at a time when he is at his weakest. Instead of going after him, Democrats need to go after his cabinet, starting with Pete Hegseth and Todd Blanche.
Democrats ran on Affordability and Accountability in the midterms. If they remember that pledge, they will put themselves in excellent position to win back the White House in two years. If they forget it, if they get distracted, they will waste the opportunity of a lifetime.
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