One week from now, millions of Americans will head to the polls to determine which political party controls Congress. The polls have the Dems favored, but they also favored Hillary Clinton in 2016, and we all know how that turned out. Seriously, if anybody comes up to you and says they know for certain what's going to happen next week, they're either a time traveler or an escapee from a mental ward. Either way, you should probably run. When it comes to predicting winners and losers, these people make playing the Lotto a sure thing.
But since I haven't written a piece in this blog in almost two years and I had nothing better to do, I thought I'd give it a whirl.
Assuming Trump's consigliere Todd Blanche doesn't succeed in interfering with the election results in various states, and assuming Mike Johnson doesn't fire the Clerk of the House of Representatives and install his own stooge before Democrats can be seated in the new Congress, I am cautiously optimistic about Democrats chances. And for the following reasons:
Republican pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar show Democratic candidates ahead in many of the races they need to flip both chambers. Rasmussen shows Dems with a plus 5 in the Generic Ballot. How significant is that? In past elections, Rasmussen has had a polling error of 2-5 points in favor of the GOP. In the 2022 midterms, for instance, Rasmussen had Republicans at plus 5 in its final poll. The RCP average was plus 2.5 and the final results were plus 2.8. In 2018, Rasmussen was literally the only pollster who had Republicans favored to win; Democrats flipped 41 seats that November.
Trafalgar has been notoriously pro Republican ever since the 2016 election, which to be fair, they nailed. But an analysis of their polling from 2018 to 2022 shows a clear bias in favor of Republicans. How clear? In swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin they were off by an average of 4.13 points, all in the direction of Republicans. In the age of Trump, the biggest problem for pollsters has been undercounting Republican voters. Many simply don't want to talk to them. As a result, the vast majority of polls were off by 2-4 points in favor of Democrats. In Trafalgar's case, they seem to have overcompensated for Republican voters in the opposite direction.
Now maybe they've learned their lesson. But even if they have, a D plus 5 generic ballot would likely result in Democrats winning 220 or more seats in the House. If Rasmussen if off by 2 points, Democrats could likely end up with 230 seats. In the Senate races, Trafalgar has the Democratic candidate slightly ahead in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Kansas and Texas, and considerably ahead in Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota would be holds; the rest would be flips. Meaning Dems would wind up with 51 seats in the Senate. If Trafalgar is off by just two points in the direction of Republicans, Democrats would flip Alaska, Iowa and Maine, as well.
Another reason to be cautiously optimistic is that the RNC has pulled its funding out of races it has concluded are not winnable and thrown millions into races that should never have been in doubt. Trump himself has visited places like Texas, Ohio, Kansas and that great swing state known as Mississippi to shore up support for GOP candidates. You don't do that unless you know something bad is about to happen.
Then there are the early returns from across the country. Based on the available data, Democrats are over performing past early election returns by 5-10 points in some places. While there's no way to determine exactly where the early vote is coming from, i.e. cities, suburbs, rural, it is comforting to know that, on the surface at least, the prospects for Democrats are looking good. They may not flip 41 seats like they did in 2018, but 15 seats is certainly possible.
So, will it be a blue tsunami, a blue wave or a blue undertow? Who the hell knows? As things stand now, Democrats can wind up with as many as 235 House seats and 54 Senate seats or as little as 218 House seats and 48 Senate seats. I wish I could be more precise. About the only things we know for certain is that the sun will rise in the East and Republicans will scream foul if they lose.
As for me, unlike past elections, I've decided not to offer up my own predictions. If my track record in sports is any indicator, that's probably a good idea. The last thing any of us needs is me jinxing things.
Here's what I will say: if you don't vote, you have no right to complain about the outcome.
Comments