The moment the country has been waiting for since Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race is practically upon us. Tomorrow evening, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off against each other, in what many are saying will be the most consequential debate in presidential politics.
But before we get to that, I wanted to comment a bit on the New York Times / Sienna poll that dropped on Sunday. To say it caused ripples within the Democratic party would be putting it mildly. It showed Trump leading Harris 48-47 nationally. Here are a few observations:
1. This is a legitimate poll. Attacking it, as Harris supporters are doing, isn't very helpful, nor is it likely to change the underlying numbers.
2. This should put to rest the absurd notion that Trump supporters are being underrepresented in these polls. 48 percent represents a high-water mark for him.
3. While Republicans had a +2 in respondents, this is well within the range for most polls.
4. A look at the cross tabs reveals the crux of Harris's problem. Here are some that stuck out: 28 percent of voters don't know enough about her, compared with just 9 percent for Trump. Among voters 18-30, she only leads Trump 51-43; Biden was +24 in 2020. Among Hispanics, she leads Trump 52-40; Biden won this demographic 59-31 in 2020. Among Blacks, she leads Trump 75-13; again Biden won this demographic 81-7 in 2020. Clearly, these numbers must improve by Election Day for her to win the presidency.
Which brings us to the debate. It goes without saying that Harris must win it, no if, ands or buts. A tie would be a win for Trump since no one expects him to have a strong performance. Below are my four keys for Harris to prevail:
1. Don't go tit for tat with Trump. As I wrote in an earlier piece, Trump's one lone super power is his ability to drag his opponents down to his level. He knows he can't win if the election comes down to who's more likable, so he has to make Harris less likable. He will try to provoke her throughout the debate in an attempt to get her to respond in kind. Hillary took the bait in 2016 and lost; Biden didn't in 2020 and won. Harris must have the discipline to follow in her boss's footsteps. In fact, the best thing she could do would be to pretend he's not there. Nothing drives Trump up the wall more than being ignored. It's his Kryptonite.
2. Don't spend the entire debate fact-checking Trump. This is going to be especially tough for a career prosecutor like Harris, who specializes in exposing lies from defendants on the stand in front of a jury. But here's the thing: every minute she spends fact-checking Trump is one less minute she has to introduce herself to that 28 percent who say they don't know enough about her. It also would be playing into Trump's hands, since it would reduce the debate to a he said / she said food fight. Remember, a draw is ostensibly a win for Trump.
3. Harris must pick her spots. While, like I said, it would be a mistake for Harris to spend the entire evening fact-checking Trump, there will be moments during the debate when Harris will have no choice but to call out his more egregious lies. Two such lies will concern the economy and the border. Regarding the former, Harris must make it clear that Trump's proposal to impose a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on all imports and a 40 percent tariff on imports from China will be paid for, not by the countries they are imposed on, but by American consumers. Furthermore, it will lead to retaliatory tariffs by other nations against the United States. Regarding the latter, Harris must remind the voters that it was Trump who killed the bi-partisan Senate bill that would've secured the border and changed the asylum laws in this country. And he did it because it would've helped Biden. As president she will sign that bill.
4. Lay out her vision for the country. This is where Harris can truly put Trump in the rear-view mirror. For the roughly five percent of the electorate that still hasn't made up its mind, and the five percent that's leaning one way or another, these people are looking for someone who can effectively lead the nation over the next four years; someone who has a plan to tackle the problems that beset the majority of voters. Instead of punitive tariffs and drill, baby, drill, Harris will expand the child-tax credit from $2,000 to $6,000 for newborns, increase the deduction for small business startups from $5,000 to $50,000, give first-time home buyers a $25,000 deposit, lower the price of prescription drugs, and go after price gougers. The country doesn't need a Monday-morning quarterback in the Oval Office; what it needs is someone with the skill set and maturity to hit the ground running on day one.
To win the presidency, Harris must look presidential on that debate stage. The Democratic Convention was just her introduction. This is, for all intents and purposes, her interview with America. It's her best, and perhaps last, chance to close the deal with the voters and land the most powerful position on the planet.
To say she has a lot of weight on her shoulders would be an understatement.
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