The Ramifications of RFK Jr's Withdrawal From the Race

Before I get to RKJ Jr, a word or two on the DNC. If it were possible to hit a five-run homer in the bottom of the 9th, the Democrats managed to do so in Chicago this week. Kudos to the organizers and the speakers. From the Obamas to Bill and Hillary to both nominees, the event exceeded expectations, even for a guy who sometimes sees the glass half empty. 

What a dichotomy: Hope and joy vs. the Hunger Games; the future vs. the past; inclusion vs. nativism; solutions vs. grievances. I fully expect Kamala Harris to get a two point bump when the polling hits next week.

Now onto to the feature topic. 

There's been a lot of hyperventilating on both sides about what RFK Jr's withdrawal means for the 2024 presidential election. Trump supporters are already planning his parade down Pennsylvania Avenue, while Harris supporters are screaming words like traitor at Kennedy; which is a rather strange word to use for a guy who never had any principles to begin with.

It seems like a lifetime ago, but back in March, RFK Jr was polling at 13.7 percent, which is respectable for a third-party candidate. To put that in perspective, in 1992 Ross Perot got 18.9 percent of the popular vote. But by the time Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, Kennedy's poll numbers had plummeted to 8.7 percent. It currently stands at 5 percent. With both Harris and Trump shoring up their base and ostensibly only 5 to 7 percent of the electorate still left in the undecided column, the writing was on the wall. It wasn't a question of if, but when for Kennedy.

So how does his pulling out affect the overall polling? Honestly, I think people might be overstating the impact. The history of third party candidates suggests that most of their supporters are people who normally would not vote. They are, for the most part, disenchanted with the two-party system in this country. Jill Stein is an excellent example. Most of us assumed that Stein's presence on the ballot cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election; yet there's no actual proof that Stein took any votes away from Hillary. The likely scenario is that most of the people who voted for Stein simply would've stayed home or written in someone else's name on the ballot had she dropped out. 

If I had to guess, I'd say the same thing happens here with RFK Jr. Sure, some of his supports will still vote - say, 25 percent - but the vast majority of them will choose to stay home. And those who do vote, won't all vote for Trump. How do we know this? Because that's what the polling is telling us, that's why. Below is a side-by-side comparison between the two-way (H2H) polling and the five-way (Trump, Harris, Kennedy, West and Stein) polling in both the national and seven swing states, according to Real Clear Politics. 

Nat'l:  (H2H) Harris +1.5  / (5-way) Harris +2.0  /  (Differential) 0.5 Trump

Pa:      (H2H) Trump +0.2  / (5-way) Harris +2.0 /  (Differential) 2.2 Trump

Mi:      (H2H) Harris +2.0  / ( 5-way) Harris +2.4 /  (Differential) 0.4 Trump

Wi:      (H2H) Harris +1.0  / (5-way) Harris +1.5 /    (Differential) 0.5 Trump

Nv:      (H2H) Trump +1.4 / (5-way) Trump +2.2 /  (Differential) 0.8 Harris

Az:      (H2H) Trump +0.2 / (5-way) Harris +0.6 /  (Differential) 0.8 Trump

Ga:      (H2H) Trump +1.0 / (5-way) Trump +1.7 /  (Differential) 0.7 Harris

NC:     (H2H) Trump +0.9 / (5-way) Dead Even  /  (Differential) 0.9 Trump

As you can see, in the all-important swing states, Trump stands to gain 2.2 points in Pennsylvania, which is hardly inconsequential. But the other six are all within a point either way, with Trump gaining in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, and Harris gaining in Nevada and Georgia. In other words, sans the Keystone state, it's pretty much a push. So much for a Trump windfall. 

Two things to keep in mind: 1. This is not an apples to apples comparison, as some pollsters did not run both two-way and five-way polls, and 2. No post-convention polls are included here, which as I stated above, I fully expect to be much better for Harris. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if, a week from now, Harris is leading in all seven swing states in the head-to-head matchup against Trump.

Of course, no one can tell for sure. Maybe more of RFK Jr's supporters wind up voting, which could skew the numbers toward Trump more than expected. There's also the possibility that hardly any of them vote. We'll have to wait and see.

But, for now, it's pointless to assume anything beyond what the data tells us. And, right now, what the data is telling us is that, regardless of who wins in November, this will be a very close election. 

We are now entering the fourth quarter and Democrats have a three-point lead. Harris has the momentum, but it's still anybody's game.