In the end, the man who for over 50 years put his country ahead of his political ambition, did so again. Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, announced on Twitter Sunday afternoon that he was ending his reelection campaign and endorsing his vice president Kamala Harris.
It was a remarkable moment, one that the nation had not witnessed since 1968, when then President Lyndon Johnson made a similar decision not to seek reelection. Though in the case of Johnson, he took to the airwaves to make his announcement. I suspect Biden will do the same sometime this week.
Before we get to how this impacts the 2024 election, a few things need to be said.
1. While there may be some hard feelings and perhaps even some resentment over the events of the last few weeks, the facts were undeniable. Even before the debate, doubts were starting to creep in about Biden's ability to serve a second term. His performance on that stage cemented in the minds of millions of voters their worst fears: that he was not up to the task. No amount of interviews were going to change that impression. Every day he remained in the race was another day Democrats would be unable to prosecute their case against Trump and his MAGA extremist agenda for America.
2. His polling was cratering. In addition to trailing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, he was tied in Minnesota and barely ahead in Virginia. A recent poll had him up by only three in New Jersey, a state he carried by 19.5 points four years ago. And there was no indication that the hemorrhaging was going to abate. Just the opposite, in fact. The trend was looking ominous. Biden was in jeopardy of becoming only the second Democrat since Micheal Dukakis to lose both the electoral college and the popular vote.
3. Biden's low approval was starting to have a negative impact on down-ballot races in swing districts. Dreams of a Democratic takeover of the House were looking more and more like the GOP padding its narrow majority. I am quite certain that is what prompted Nancy Pelosi to leak her meeting with Biden. She could see the writing on the wall, even if he couldn't.
4. Now is not the time for bitter resentments to cloud one's better judgment. What's done is done. The real enemy is Trump. Every single one of us, regardless of how we feel about the current president, must now focus all our energies to ensure this sociopath never gets anywhere near the Oval Office.
Now onto Harris.
With her nomination all but a formality, the DNC needs to hold a virtual roll-call vote BEFORE the convention next month, and for the following reasons:
1. The last thing Democrats need less than three months before the election is an open convention - in Chicago, of all places. The last time that happened it turned into a clusterfuck. The resulting infighting that took place on live TV made the party look ridiculous and led to a lot of hard feelings, which in turn led to depressed Democratic voter turnout, which in turn led to Richard Nixon winning the general election. That cannot be allowed to happen again. What Democrats need now is party unity not grandstanding from people like Joe Manchin and Dean Phillips. Harris may not be the second coming of FDR, but right now she's the best hope of preserving representative democracy in America. She's also the only candidate who would inherit the Biden campaign's infrastructure, as well as its war chest, which at present stands at over $200 million. Starting over from scratch would be the height of political malpractice.
2. Each state has its own deadline with respect to when nominees need to be on file with the secretary of state. With Republicans threatening legal challenges to prevent Harris from replacing Biden at the top of the ticket, the last thing Democrats need is to give them any ammunition. Holding a virtual roll-call to confirm Harris as the nominee ostensibly takes away one potential legal argument: that the party missed a deadline to file. After that, it comes to legal standing, which Republicans will not have, according to Marc Elias.
So how's does a Harris candidacy affect the race?
As I mentioned above, every day Biden stayed in the race was another day Democrats couldn't prosecute their case against Trump. With him off the ticket, Harris will now be able to devote her full attention to items like Project 2025, abortion rights and Trump's corruption, the last thing Republicans were looking forward to.
While Harris did not run a particularly effective campaign in 2020, she was, nonetheless, a very good debater during the primaries, especially against Biden. It is that very skillset, honed from her days as a prosecutor and Attorney General in California, that will prove most valuable when she debates Trump in September. That might be why Trump has hinted he may skip the debate altogether. Another typical dodge by Captain Courageous.
But while her debating skills are self evident, Democrats are counting on her to do two crucial things that Biden couldn't do: give younger voters a reason to vote; and reclaim that share of the Black vote Trump had taken away from them. Democrats can brag all they want about how big their tent is, but at the end of the day, this is still a party that depends on its base turning out in November. When it stays home, Republicans win. It's that simple.
But while Harris may have some pros going for her, she also has her fair share of cons, as well. For starters, unlike Biden, Harris can get very testy with the media. Also staff who have worked on her campaign have said she can be very difficult to work for. And while she will do her best to chart her own course, she is also part of an administration that has had some questionable policies over the last three and a half years; most notably, the border, which continues to be a huge problem for Democrats. Trump will hit her hard on this issue and she will have to come up with better answers than her boss has.
Then there's the war in Gaza, which has become very unpopular with many Democrats. Biden has been unabashedly pro-Israel and has resisted calls from his base to publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu. Progressives are fed up with the constant bombardment of the Strip and the killing of thousands of Palestinians. How Harris threads this needle will go a long way towards determining whether millions of Democrats turn out in November or stay home. If she tacts too far to the left, she risks alienating millions of Jewish voters; if she defends Biden's stance, she risks alienating her progressive flank.
If I had to predict where the polls will be after the convention, I'd say a lot depends on who Harris picks as her running mate. If she chooses well, I'd say she'll have a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin and be a point behind in Pennsylvania. In other words, in a good, but not great, position. As for Nevada, Arizona and Georgia she has a lot of work ahead of her if she wants to win those states. It's worth noting that prior to Biden dropping out of the race, Harris was already polling about two points better against Trump, so that's pretty encouraging.
And speaking of running mates, who should Harris choose as hers?
As I wrote in a piece four years ago, "a VP has only two functions: one, do no harm; two, shore up a deficiency." The names that are being floated - Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper and Mark Kelly are all excellent choices and would make ideal running mates. Of the five, only Whitmer has publicly said she isn't interested in being vice president.
If it were me, I'd pick Shapiro. As governor of Pennsylvania, he could help pull the Keystone state back into play. Make no mistake about it: there is no path to the White House for Democrats that doesn't include Pennsylvania. Without it, Harris would have to win both Georgia and Arizona; and as of Sunday, Biden was trailing Trump by 5.9 and 5.5 points respectively in the 538 polling average.
We'll know a lot more as time goes on. Suffice to say, we have a horse race now. How it turns out will be up to Kamala Harris. I'm sure this isn't the way she was hoping to get the nomination of her party, but then millions of us were hoping Trump would be in prison by now.
I guess we all have to learn to live with disappointment.
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