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It's been eight days since Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris, and so far, the preliminary results have been nothing short of astonishing. The newly minted Harris campaign has raised over $200 million in just the first week alone. Tens of thousands of volunteers have signed up in various swing states across the country. The runaway train that was headed straight for a political cliff has, for the moment at least, put the brakes on. A party that had, for all intents and purposes, resigned itself to a landslide defeat in November, now has reason to hope. I haven't seen Democrats this giddy since 2008.
It would not be overstating it to say that the emergence of Harris as the presumptive nominee hasn't just stop the hemorrhaging; it's given her party a real shot at keeping the White House this November. Typically, I don't pay too much attention to polls this early in a campaign, but the turnaround, especially in the Rust Belt states, has been quite noticeable. A recent Fox poll shows Harris tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, trailing him by a point in Wisconsin and leading him by six in Minnesota. By comparison, the last 538 polling average for Biden in all four states showed him trailing Trump by 4.4 in Pa., 2.4 in Mi., 2.3 in Wi. and tied in Minnesota.
Why is the Fox poll so significant? Because while Fox News is ostensibly an extension of the Republican party, its polls are generally recognized throughout the industry as among the most accurate. This poll closely resembles what happened in 2020. While Biden won Minnesota by 7 points, the other three states were quite close. Michigan 2.78, Pennsylvania 1.2 and Wisconsin .6. Given that this was Harris's first week on the campaign trail, the odds are she will improve upon these numbers.
There are other signs that are equally encouraging. Two polls - one from Ipsos and the other from Morning Consult - show Harris's approval numbers improving considerably over the last week.
Ipsos: 43% approve - 42% disapprove, up from 35% approve - 46% disapprove.
Morning Consult: 50% approve - 46% disapprove, up from 43% approve - 51% disapprove.
Then there's the enthusiasm gap. With Harris at the top of the ticket, Democrats are leading Republicans by six points: 88 to 82 percent. Back in February, Republicans held an 18 point lead over Democrats: 80-62 percent. Harris has also increased her poll numbers among African Americans (+8 points) and Hispanics (+6 points) compared with Biden.
It gets better. Atlas asked a group of registered voters who they trusted more with a variety of issues. The results were predictable, except for one.
The environment: Harris +18
Education: Harris +10
Healthcare: Harris +10
Reducing poverty: Harris +6
Appointing justices to the Supreme Court: Harris +9
Safeguarding democracy: Harris +6
Combatting corruption: Harris +3
The economy: Tied
No, that wasn't a misprint. Harris and Trump are tied on the economy. If this poll is accurate, it would take away one of the two issues Trump has to run on; the other being the border, which apparently wasn't polled in this survey. There are a number of pundits who believe the economy may not be the winner Republicans are counting on it to be. Inflation continues to come down, GDP growth continues to exceed expectations, unemployment is at its lowest point in 55 years, and if you have a 401k account, it has probably doubled in value since 2020. The fact is, despite the high inflation we saw over the first two years of the Biden Administration, demand remains high and overall consumer confidence continues to belie what voters have been telling pollsters.
And Harris has yet to pick a running mate. Assuming she doesn't blow it like Trump did with Vance - given the list of potential candidates, that seems unlikely - she should get a 2-3 point bump coming out of the Democratic convention, which is still three weeks away, mind you. That will come in handy in states like Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, where Harris still trails Trump by several points. Biden's decision to basically abandon the Sun Belt and concentrate solely on the Rust Belt allowed these states to atrophy. Inexcusable but not unrepairable.
We still have a long way to go, but so far things are looking good. Harris has injected life into what was a moribund campaign. The base is fired up and she has the wind at her back. The Trump campaign was caught completely off guard. They were expecting to run against Biden; now they're the ones who have to recalibrate.
Shit happens.
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