And when the game was finally over, the anticipated red wave petered out before it even hit the shore. Democrats retained their Senate majority, and had it not been for four critical losses in New York and one in California, they would've kept their majority in the House, as well. They not only successfully defended all but one of their governorships, including deep red Kansas, they managed to flip three from red to blue. They even flipped both chambers of the Michigan legislature. In Arizona, Democrats will control both Senate seats and the governor's mansion for the first time since 1950.
So what happened?
For the third time in four election cycles, the polls were wrong. In 2016 and 2020, they underestimated Republican turnout; in 2022, they did the same with Democratic turnout. According to the RCP average, in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Mehmet Oz was slightly favored over John Fetterman; Fetterman won by four points. In Arizona, Blake Masters was slightly favored over Mark Kelly; Kelly won by almost five points. In Nevada, Adam Lexalt was favored by more than three points over Catherine Cortez Masto; Cortez Masto eked out a narrow one-point win. And in New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan was only slightly favored over Don Bolduc, yet won going away by almost nine points.
In the gubernatorial races, the polls were equally skewed. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, the Democratic candidate over performed their respective polling average by several points. The most gratifying result came in the Grand Canyon state where Donald Trump firebrand Kari Lake lost a close election to Katie Hobbs, who didn't even bother to debate her.
Talk about beating the spread.
It was clear from the returns that the electorate had profound reservations with many of the Republicans on the ballot. Think about it. With the political headwinds blowing decidedly against Democrats, voters took a long, hard look at the alternative and said "No thanks." That's about as stinging a rebuke as you can get. Turns out, James Carville was wrong. It wasn't the economy, stupid, after all.
Among young voters, who, by the way, turned out in record numbers, the threat to democracy and reproductive rights were the top two issues. Candidates who were election deniers and had adopted hardline positions on abortion were soundly defeated. And while Trump was not officially on the ballot, his fingerprints were all over the midterms. Virtually every one of his hand-picked nominees lost. Conversely, more traditional Republicans like Brian Kemp in Georgia and Chris Sununu in New Hampshire won handedly.
The moral of the story is that candidates matter. The GOP thought all they had to do was run candidates with an R next to their name and that would be enough. They were wrong and they paid the price last week. The irony is that had Trump stayed out of the process, it's entirely possible that the 2022 midterms would've resembled past midterms in which the party in power suffered significant losses.
So what should Democrats do with their good fortune?
One, win the Georgia runoff. While 50 seats is good enough for the majority, having 51 would provide some breathing room just in case either Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema decide to be a pain in the ass. Also, the '24 Senate map is not kind to Democrats. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown are up for reelection in Montana and Ohio respectively. Both barely won their races four years ago and both will face stiff challenges two years from now. The likelihood is that at least one of them will lose.
Raphael Warnock is an accomplished senator who has served his constituents well. He deserves another six-year term. His opponent, Herschel Walker, looks and sounds like a guy who's taken one too many shots to the head. He is, by far, the least qualified Republican to run this fall, and that's saying something given some of the "winners" Trump pushed on the party. Democrats must get their voters out to the polls to make sure Walker never sees the inside of the Capitol.
Two, raise the debt ceiling and secure funding for Ukraine now before the lame duck session expires. With the GOP taking the House in the next Congress, you can expect that they will hold both hostage looking for concessions. The obvious targets will be Social Security and Medicare, which Republicans are on record as wanting to slash. Unlike Nancy Pelosi, who was a real Speaker, Kevin McCarthy will not have the spine or the stomach to stand up to the more extremist elements in his conference. With the prospect of bogus investigations and impeachment proceedings, the next two years promise to be a clown show. It is incumbent upon Joe Biden and Democrats to make sure the clowns don't burn down the tent.
Three, don't take a victory lap. Let's face it, Democrats caught a break here. The electorate wasn't voting for them so much as it was voting against the GOP. If the economy goes into recession next year, as many economists are predicting, voters may decide to hold their noses and vote red in '24. And with Trump announcing his intention to run for president last night, the unthinkable could become reality. If you're looking for Republicans to stand up to this twice-impeached sociopath, don't hold your breath. Even after being humiliated in the midterms, they will once again fall in line and pledge their fealty to him. They can't help themselves. Jesus, crack addicts have more willpower.
Bottom line, the nation dodged yet another bullet last week. We came dangerously close to having election deniers take control of the electoral process across this country; election deniers, who with the stroke of a pen, could've overturned the next election. Thankfully, that didn't happen. But the menace hasn't gone away. So long as Trump and his acolytes are around, the threat to democracy will always be with us.
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