A recent poll by NBC News may have offered us a glimpse into what we can expect this November in the midterm elections. When asked what the most important issues facing the country are, respondents listed the following in this order:
Another NBC News poll shows that 57 percent of voters - 92 percent among Democrats and 61 percent among Independents - believe that investigations into Trump should continue versus 40 percent who believe they shouldn't.
Two things immediately jump out from these two polls: One, neither cost of living nor the economy was first; it was threats to democracy. Even among Republican voters, the economy was not first; it was second, followed by cost of living and threats to democracy tied for third. Though let's be honest, when Republicans talk about threats to democracy, they're referring to Joe Biden winning a legitimate and free and fair election, so take that with a rather large grain of salt.
Two, it's clear that more people are paying close attention to the January 6 Committee hearings than we previously thought, and they don't like what they're seeing. Trump may be consolidating his grip on the GOP, but he remains an extremely polarizing and unpopular figure with a majority of the electorate.
The reason the economy isn't the number one issue concerning voters likely comes down to two factors: First, while voters may not be happy about inflation, many do understand that as the supply chain continues to ramp up to meet consumer demand, it will come down. We're already starting to see evidence of that at the gas pump. Prices have been steadily dropping for over two months. The parallels to the 1980s just aren't accurate. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Trump is drowning out whatever message national Republicans wanted to run on. The fact is the more he involves himself in the 2022 midterms, the more they become a referendum on him instead of Joe Biden and Democrats.
There also could be another reason. Republican candidates who are election deniers and have vowed to either de-certify the last election, overturn the next one or both are on the ballot in various swing states across the country. Voters are rightly concerned about what could happen should they win in November. That might explain why Mitch McConnell isn't all that bullish over his party's prospects for re-taking the majority in the Senate. Candidates matter, and with candidates like Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, you can certainly see why. All four are trailing in their respective races; Oz by a whopping 7.5 points in a state Biden won by less than 1.5 points in 2020.
In any other midterm election with an incumbent president polling as low as Joe Biden is - 42 percent according to the latest NBC News poll - we'd be talking about a rout. Instead we are talking about the very real possibility of Democrats flipping at least one state house, netting a seat or two in the Senate, and even adding to their razor-thin majority in the House.
And Democrats have Trump and his collection of misfit toys to thank for that. That's why I called David Brooks a "bedwetter" for suggesting that the FBI's search and seizure of classified documents at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort might get him reelected. Not only isn't that likely to happen, his overreaction to what was a legal search warrant will end up costing his party this year, just like his conduct while in office cost them the House, White House and Senate in 2018, 2020 and 2021 respectively.
That's what happens when you have a sociopath for an ex-president. You get a lot of mini-sociopaths all clamoring to please their master. Democrats need to drive that point home this fall. They need to draw a clear distinction between what they represent and what the GOP represents. Yes, accomplishments are important, and this president and his party certainly have a lot to crow about in that respect. But just in case that message doesn't get through, as it sometimes doesn't, voters need to know that Democracy is on the ballot in 2022, and Democrats shouldn't be afraid to say so.
Consider this: Last year, Glenn Youngkin ran a perfect race against Terry McAuliffe for the governorship of Virginia and won by a mere 60,000 votes. Two things were responsible for that outcome: 1. McAulife made several costly missteps, and 2. Trump behaved himself and stayed out of the race. That isn't likely to repeat itself. For one thing, Kari Lake (Arizona) and Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania) are incapable of running the kind of disciplined campaign needed to win over independent and moderate voters, and the polling in their respective races shows it. For another, even if they were capable, Trump won't let them. Given half an inch, he'll take the proverbial mile and make the elections all about him, just like he made the Georgia special elections in January, 2021 all about him. He can't help himself; it's who he is.
We all know the axiom, "It's about the economy, stupid." In any other year that would be true. Not this time around. This year, it's about the Democracy, stupid.
Comments