In New Jersey, Phil Murphy barely won reelection against a guy who looks more like a cross between a used car salesman and an insurance agent than a potential governor. And while Democrats retained control of both houses of the state legislature, Stephen Sweeney, the President of the Senate, lost his seat to a guy who spent a grand total of - I kid you not - $150 on his campaign.
But those weren't the only places where Democrats took it on the chin. In my neck of the woods - Nassau County - Republicans captured the office of County Executive, District Attorney, and the mayor of my home town. If you had a D next to your name you were about as popular as a drunk showing up at a temperance meeting.
So how did this train jump the tracks? I believe it comes down to two things.
1. The dysfunction in Washington. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The failure of Democrats in the House to vote on the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which passed the Senate more than two months ago, was nothing short of political malpractice, both for the party and for this president. Joe Biden was elected to restore normalcy and competence to Washington. A bill that got 19 Republican votes being signed into law would've been hailed as a major accomplishment for the administration and would've signaled to voters that bipartisanship was indeed possible.
It also could've stopped the hemorrhaging in Biden's polls numbers, which began declining around the time of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Progressives held it hostage under the naive belief that they could somehow force Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to support a massive $3.5 trillion social spending bill. Not only didn't that strategy work, in the end they wound up getting half of what they were looking for. And even now, on the verge of success, Nancy Pelosi is insisting on including a provision in the bill that, while popular, Manchin has already said he will not vote for. You can't make this shit up.
This isn't sausage making, it's a clown show. The constant infighting and mudslinging between the two wings of the party no doubt left a bad taste in voters mouths. And Biden's inability to coral his members made him look weak and ineffective. Barely ten months into his presidency, Biden is polling barely ahead of where Trump was during his presidency. Astonishing.
2. Candidates matter. Terry McAuliffe has now run three times for governor of Virginia and has yet to crack the 50 percent threshold. His lone victory in 2013 was owed almost exclusively to the presence of a libertarian on the ballot who ended up siphoning off six percent from his Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli. Ironically, in losing, McAuliffe got a higher percentage of the vote (48.5) than when he won (48).
But percentages aside, McAuliffe's entire political strategy was flawed from the very beginning. Unlike his predecessor Ralph Northam, who ran an issues-oriented campaign that barely mentioned Trump, McAuliffe couldn't stop talking about him. His attempts to link Youngkin to the former guy failed for two reasons: one, Yougkin did a very good job distancing himself from Trump, preferring instead to talk about issues voters cared most about; and two, Trump, for the most part, stayed out of the race.
Yes, as strange as it may seem, when the GOP runs candidates like Youngkin who aren't bat-shit crazy, they do surprisingly well. Almost every Republican who either won or came close to winning Tuesday had one thing in common: they didn't look or sound anything like Trump. Voters may not have liked what they saw at the Capitol on January 6, but it turns out they liked Democrats even less.
So how do Democrats avoid Armageddon next November? There are the things they must do.
1. Pass the damn bills. Enough is enough. House progressives need to stop acting like spoiled brats who didn't get a pony under the Christmas tree. Take what you can get and move on. Pass both bills, get them to Biden's desk and prove to the voters that you can actually govern. That was what you were elected to do, right?
This isn't 1964 or even 1934, when Democrats held huge majorities in both Houses. There was never any mandate to dramatically transform the social safety net. So long as there are moderate Democrats in both the House and Senate, progressives are simply going to have to dial back their expectations or else this pattern is going to keep repeating itself until they get destroyed in the midterms.
2. Biden must lead. Throughout the campaign, we got to know and love Uncle Joe. He was the anti-Trump; the eternal optimist who swore he was going to fix our broken politics. And after four years of watching Trump burn down the joint, an exhausted electorate decided to give him a chance, including some Republicans who were Never Trumpers.
But now that he's in the White House, it's time for Uncle Joe to go his merry way. The nation needs to see President Biden take charge. As the leader of his party he is responsible for setting the tone and direction. That doesn't mean he has to threaten them like Trump did and continues to do with his party, but he can't afford to be led around by them anymore. Never again can Biden make a trip to Capitol Hill and come away empty handed. For the sake of his presidency and the future of the Republic, he must show some tough love to this group of misfit toys while they still have the majority.
3. Democrats need to stop writing off rural America. Of all the observations made in the wake of this week's elections, none seemed more astute than the one made by Frank Luntz: "If Democrats go from losing rural counties by 40-50 points to 15-20, it will flip their fortunes in state-wide races."
Actually, the task isn't quite as herculean as Luntz suggests. When you break down the results in Virginia, all McAuliffe had to do was shave about ten points off of Youngkin's margins in the southwestern part of the state and about five points in the Richmond suburbs and he would've won the election. The same can be said of Murphy's narrow win in New Jersey. An extra five points in the western and southern parts of the state would've given him the double-digit win many pollsters predicted he'd get.
The overall problem for Democrats is that they have concluded - falsely - that since they can't win in rural America, there's no sense campaigning there. But winning isn't the issue. Unless you're running in a red or blue state or district, every election is decided at the margins. We know this because there was not one county in Virginia where Youngkin didn't improve his margins over what Trump got in 2020, including the counties Trump carried and Loudoun County in Northern Virginia, where he managed to get 44 percent of the vote. Youngkin didn't need to win Loudoun County; he just needed to be be better than Trump. And he was, by six points.
Like it or not, Democrats need to make an effort reaching out to rural America. That means nominating moderate candidates like Conor Lamb and Tim Ryan in swing districts and purple states. What works in the Bronx or San Francisco doesn't necessarily work in suburban Ohio or Long Island. Having a big tent doesn't mean having more of the same people. It wasn't that long ago that Democrats held Senate seats in states like Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas and Louisiana. If the party is ever to regain the prominence it once enjoyed, there must be enough room for blue dogs as well as progressives.
4. Enough with the self-inflicted wounds. While critical race theory may or may not have been the deciding factor in Virginia, it barely got mentioned in New Jersey or Long Island. Instead, Republicans relied on those oldies but goodies: taxes and crime. And, boy, did it work like a charm.
Nassau County Executive Laura Curran lost her reelection bid because she was forced to raise taxes due to the loss of revenue from the pandemic. New York State Senator Todd Kaminsky's support for a bail reform bill - a bill that was completely mischaracterized by his Republican opponent - was the sole reason he lost his bid to become Nassau County District Attorney. In politics, as in everything, perception is all that matters.
In Minneapolis, a proposal that would've eliminated the police department was soundly rejected. In New York City, Eric Adams, an ex-cop who supports police reform but made fighting crime a central theme of his campaign, was elected mayor. In Buffalo, the Democratic socialist candidate for mayor was defeated by a write-in candidate who just happens to be the incumbent mayor. All these things are encouraging signs that sanity is alive and well in the party, even if some of progressives still resist.
These cannot be the exceptions to the rule, though. If Democrats are serious about avoiding a wipeout in the midterms, they must stop shooting themselves in the foot. They have to publicly rebuke any and all attempts at defunding the police. In 2020, party leadership, fearing a backlash from its base, was slow to respond to this movement, and it cost them 14 seats in the House. A repeat performance will be disastrous.
5. Trump won't be on the ballot in 2022. If the Virginia election taught us anything, it's that Democrats will not be able to make the 2022 midterms about Trump, especially if Republicans run candidates who are normal, i.e. not insane. That means they are going to have to make the case to the electorate for why they should remain in power.
While that won't be easy, it is possible. To do it, Democrats will need to do something they're not very good at: listening to their constituents. Listening doesn't mean lecturing, which is what Democrats do a lot of. It means making an effort to hear people out; hear their concerns, their fears, their frustrations.
For instance, while most of the inflation we're seeing is due to a lack of supply driving up demand, that explanation doesn't help a person on a fixed income who's struggling to make ends meet. A little empathy wouldn't kill Democrats and it would go a long way towards convincing voters that the party cares about them.
The pandemic was very stressful to millions of Americans, many of whom were parents. Zachary Carter in The Atlantic has some thoughts on what went wrong for Democrats.
If Carter's analysis is accurate, Democrats have a huge problem on their hands. Frustrated parents mean frustrated voters; frustrated voters mean Republican pickups; and enough Republican pickups mean House and Senate majorities for the GOP.
But there is some good news here. Even with all that went wrong, Terry McAuliffe still only lost Virginia by about 75,000 votes. And while state Democrats lost their majority in the House of Delegates, only seven seats flipped. Four years ago with Trump in the White House, Ralph Northam won by 8.9 points and Republicans lost 15 seats in the House. And while Phil Murray will eke out a narrow three-point win in New Jersey when all the votes are counted, he'll be the first Democratic incumbent in that state since 1977 to win reelection. Predictions of a repeat of 1994 and 2010 are premature.
The economy continues to improve; last month it added 531,000. This is good news for the administration. As soon as this Congress passes both the infrastructure and the Build Back Better bills * Biden's poll numbers should begin to improve, if only slightly. And speaking of those poll numbers, it's worth noting that even with everything that's gone on, Biden is still more popular than everyone else, including Trump, Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy. By next summer, the pandemic should be behind us. Good times are ahead.
Glenn Youngkin may have given Republicans a road map for how to win elections, but there's no guarantee they will follow it. In states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, candidates who are beholden to the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen are far more likely to prevail in primaries, giving Democrats at least a fighting chance to hold onto their majorities.
In other words, all is not lost.
* On Friday, House Democrats finally passed the infrastructure bill, sending it to Biden's desk where he will sign it sometime next week.
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