This just in: Joe Biden has now won Arizona for the fourth time. The five-month long cyber ninja scam audit of Maricopa County's ballots finally concluded and, to no one's surprise, the outcome was the same. In fact, Biden wound up with more votes. Cue the outrage from MAGA world.
You'd think that would be enough for Republicans to cry uncle and put the 2020 election behind them. You'd be wrong. As we speak, Texas, a state Trump won comfortably, is planning on conducting its own "audit" of its four largest counties, three of which voted for, you guessed it, Biden. Why? Because the Grifter in Chief wants it, that's why. In Pennsylvania, Republican officials are looking to review the personal data of millions of voters in that state. This is now the GOP playbook throughout the United States.
I've been thinking a lot about the California Recall Election and what it means for Democrats going forward. What conclusions, if any, can we draw from Gavin Newsom's impressive victory? Apart from the fact that California, even in an off election year, is still very much a blue state, the one conclusion that I think stands out above all else is that candidates matter.
Let's face it, Larry Elder was no Arnold Schwarzenegger. The conservative radio talk-show host and unapologetic Trump supporter left enough bread crumbs behind him to start his own bakery. Once the Newsom campaign was successfully able to make the election a referendum on Elder instead of Newsom, the polls began to shift, and seismically. A race that started out as a nail-biter, in the end turned into a rout.
I know pollsters like Dave Wasserman are bullish on Republicans chances of retaking the House and perhaps the Senate, and maybe he's right. But frankly I'm not sold. If one of the most conservative governors in the country - a governor that signed into law two of the most restrictive bills on abortion and voting rights respectively - doesn't have the spine to stand up to Trump in a state Republicans have a vice grip on, what does that portend for the kind of candidates the GOP will field going into the midterms?
With Trump now in complete control of the Republican Party, the only candidates who can win a primary are wackadoodles like Marjorie Taylor Greene who embrace the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Their extremist views may make them more popular with the base, but they will almost certainly make them more vulnerable in a general election.
In Georgia, Trump's choice to take on Raphael Warnock is Herschel Walker, a man with more skeletons than a haunted mansion. In Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, incumbents Rob Portman, Richard Burr and Pat Toomey have decided not to seek reelection, turning what should've been safe Republican races into tossups next year. If you're thinking it's a bit of a stretch to believe that Democrats can flip all three seats, I would remind you that last January, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would win both special elections in Georgia. Ask Minority Leader Mitch McConnell how that went the next time you see him.
Look, I'm not saying Democrats aren't going to get trounced in the midterms; if history is any indicator, Kevin McCarthy will be the next Speaker of the House. All I'm saying is that the outcome isn't set in stone. It will depend in large part on who the Republican nominees are. Obviously in red areas of the country, the Trumpier the better. But in purple states and, most importantly, swing districts, fealty to Trump could be costly. The problem with living in a cult is that you don't realize you're living in it until it's too late. To paraphrase Forrest Gump, crazy is as crazy does.
Democrats can make a compelling argument that electing Republicans in 2022 would be akin to hiring an arsonist to guard a gas station. Like Newsom in California, they can draw distinctions between themselves and their GOP counterparts by declaring what they're for.
“We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic. We said yes to people’s right to vote without fear of fake fraud and voter suppression. We said yes to a woman’s fundamental constitutional right to decide for herself what she does with her body, her faith, her future. We said yes to diversity.”
Those are popular positions, and they will resonate with a majority of voters, especially when combined with the baggage Republicans will certainly carry with them into the midterms.
Of the 14 House seats Democrats lost in 2020, at least 7 of them can be retaken. Depending on how redistricting goes, 2022 might not be as bad as some are forecasting. As for the Senate, I believe it's entirely possible that Democrats can net one or more seats next November. It's worth noting that while Republicans lost 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms, they still managed to gain 2 Senate seats. Anything is possible, people.
Just remember, it ain't over till the not so thin lady sings.
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