Tomorrow, the Senate will begin the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump. If it goes the same way as the first trial, Trump will be acquitted. Last month, I expressed my reservations about going forward with an impeachment. In addition to the herculean task of finding the necessary 17 Republican senators who would be brave enough to do their duty, I felt it would distract from Joe Biden's agenda and hinder the confirmation process for his nominees. As of this writing, Merrick Garland still hasn't gotten a hearing to become the next attorney general; though that's mainly due to Lindsey Graham being a vindictive dick.
Still, if something's worth doing, it's worth doing right. The Senate may not convict, but that doesn't mean some good can't come out of this. David Frum in the Atlantic, argues that while the last impeachment trial did not result in Trump's removal from office, "it did frame the 2020 election as a referendum on Trump’s wrongdoing above all—and debunked in advance the false claim that Trump lost reelection only because of his callous bungling of the COVID-19 crisis. Trump’s acquittal only postponed his political reckoning; it did not avert it."
According to Frum, a second impeachment trial, even if it results in an acquittal, will wound Trump sufficiently enough to prevent him from making a political comeback in 2024 and increase the likelihood that he will face criminal charges for the January 6 insurrection on the Capitol if, as expected, his lawyers insist on employing the ridiculous defense that Trump's actions were justified because he believed that the election was rigged.
Such a defense will put Senate Republicans in an untenable position. On the one hand, if they side with Trump to appease his base, they will lose independent voters; on the other hand, if they break with Trump, they face the prospect of primary challenges. Either way, Democrats should be able to capitalize on the internal chaos going into the midterms. Already it is better than even money that they will retain, if not expand, their Senate majority.
But all that depends on how well the House impeachment managers do in the coming days. It is imperative that they make a compelling case. They will have a boatload of material at their disposal. Unlike last year, there's no transcript from the White House that is open to interpretation; no ambiguity over what constitutes a "corrupt intent." Trump's own words on the White House Ellipse to his mob and that mob's subsequent actions will do all the talking.
The impeachment managers will have the added bonus of knowing that the senators in that chamber aren't just jurors, they're also witnesses and, yes, even victims. The fact is that had it not been for the swift response of several Capitol police officers and secret service agents that day, some of them might very well have been killed, including the former vice president. Hell, the whole building itself is a crime scene.
The merits of the case are as obvious as the nose on your face. And despite what many Republicans keep insisting, there is nothing in the Constitution which prevents an ex-president from being convicted in a Senate trial. That this is the best excuse they can come up with for not convicting Trump is proof positive they know he's guilty.
This was no "perfect call." This was an attempted coup, led by a would-be autocrat who could've cared less how many people got hurt so long as he retained power. This is the point impeachment managers must hammer over and over, not only to Senate Republicans but to the American public, who after all are the ultimate jurors. And speaking of the American public, 56 percent of them, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, want Trump barred from ever holding office again. That can only happen with a conviction.
We came precariously close to losing our republic on January 6. The best way to ensure we never go through that hell again is to hold the man who was responsible for it accountable.
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