Democrats Shouldn't Push Their Luck with Manchin

The good thing about having 50 seats in the Senate is that it gives you the majority. The bad thing about having 50 seats in the Senate is that it gives you the majority. And, no, that wasn't a typo.

Since their improbable sweep in last month's runoff elections, which gave them control of the upper chamber, Democrats have been in a quandary. On the one hand, they chair the committees, which gives them the ability to launch investigations and to fast track Joe Biden's nominees. They also get to decide which legislation the Senate takes up, something they've been unable to do since 2015. 

But as Mitch McConnell discovered in 2017, just having the majority doesn't necessarily mean you get everything you want. It was John McCain, if you recall, who cast the deciding no vote in the skinny repeal attempt of Obamacare that saved the law from extinction. And McConnell had a 52 seat majority back then. Chuck Schumer has less than that to work with.

I know that Democrats, especially progressive Democrats, are giving Joe Manchin a lot of grief since he announced his opposition to Neera Tanden, Biden's nominee to head the Office of Management and Budget. And, yes, for the record, Manchin's decision smacks of sexism and selective amnesia, given he had no qualms about voting to confirm Richard Grenell as ambassador to Germany. On a good day, Grenell makes Tanden look like Mother Teresa.

But here's the thing. Manchin is that rarest of commodities: a Democrat in a red state. And not just any red state, mind you, but a red state Trump carried by 40 points. If Democrats think for a minute they're going to intimidate Manchin into voting yes just because of the letter next to his name, they've got another thing coming to them.

In fact, Democrats should watch their P's and Q's with the West Virginia senator, lest he follow the lead of his governor, Jim Justice, and abandon the Democratic Party. Now, between you, me and the goal post, I don't think that Manchin would actually be stupid enough to switch parties. For one thing, why would he want any part of the madness that is currently gripping the GOP? And for another, if Manchin were to jump ship and become a Republican, he would almost certainly face a primary challenge from the right. The guy did vote to convict Trump in both impeachment trials, and if there's one thing we know from watching Trump's base the last four years: they're like the mob; they don't forget - EVER!

My guess is that Manchin knows how much power he has as a Democrats and plans on wielding it as much as possible to his advantage. And that means progressives are going to have to bite down hard and swallow. Even beyond the Tanden pick, which is all but dead, parts of Biden's agenda are in jeopardy, such as the minimum wage, immigration reform and gun control.

It isn't just Manchin who's proving to be problematic. Jon Tester, Kyrsten Sinema and even Angus King could be flies in the ointment as well. Sinema actually showed up at a Senate hearing wearing a shirt with the words "Dangerous Creature" embroidered on it. Talk about sending a message. It might as well have read "Don't Fuck With Me."

If I were Biden, I'd invite all four senators over to the White House for a nice long lunch just to let them know a) how much he truly appreciates them and b) that he won't take their votes for granted. Because the Bernie wing of the Party is making a terrible mistake if it thinks it's going to strong-arm what's left of the blue-dog caucus. There's even talk of a primary challenge to Sinema in 2024 if she doesn't toe the line. To even consider such a stunt is beyond crazy, given the demographics of Arizona.

Progressives have had this problem for quite some time now. They see compromise as a four-letter word. In the binary world in which they live, either they get 100 percent of what they're looking for or they get nothing. Mostly they get nothing. It never occurs to them that getting 75 percent is a good outcome.

Take Covid relief for example. Yes, the bill is vital and it enjoys broad support even within the business community, but the provision to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour faces an uphill battle: first from the Senate Parliamentarian, who has yet to rule on whether it can be included; and, assuming she signs off on it, from the aforementioned Manchin. The sixty-four thousand dollar question for progressives is this: can they accept, however grudgingly, a bill that is less than what they were hoping for?

Because this isn't a one off. As long as Democrats need all 50 senators to vote yes on a bill, this issue is here to stay, or until such time as Democrats win enough seats to make the matter moot. If progressives can't live with getting 75 percent of what they're looking for, they are virtually guaranteeing that the first two years of the Biden Administration are going to be very unproductive. And that would be the gift of a lifetime for Republicans who've been looking for an exit ramp ever since il Duce descended that escalator in his hideous tower.

Look, if Reagan could figure out that not getting everything he wanted was an acceptable strategy, there's no excuse for progressives. Living to fight another day isn't a sellout; it's how the world has been run since its inception.