Contrary to what I wrote back in November, I'm actually starting to like Democrats' prospects in this month's Georgia runoff elections. In fact, as things stand right now, the odds of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff both winning are better than 50 / 50. I'll explain.
As of the deadline for early voting, which was Friday*, 3 million ballots had been cast. That's 300 thousand more than the early vote total in the November general election. Typically, runoff elections don't have higher turnout rates than general elections, so this is something of an anomaly. And while the numbers don't tell us who voted for whom, what we can surmise is that an awful lot of people are politically engaged in this election.
If history is any indication, Democrats tend to fare better with higher voter turnout than Republicans, even in purple and red states. For instance, there's little doubt that the high turnout in Fulton and Cobb counties was responsible for Biden beating Trump last November, so Democrats will need to pull the same rabbit out of the same hat again on January 5 in order to have any chance at prevailing.
But they'll need even more than that. Because while Biden edged Trump out by just under 12,000 votes, both Ossoff and Warnock received less votes than their Republican opponents. What this indicates is that some voters split their ballots between Biden and David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. Indeed, had it not been for an outdated Georgia election law that stipulates all candidates except presidential must receive 50 percent or more of the vote to avoid a runoff, Perdue would've won his election outright, rendering the Warnock / Loeffler race moot.
So how will Democrats make up the difference? Enter Trump, the grifter in chief. Yesterday, he went on Twitter and called the Georgia runoffs "illegal and invalid." Nice, huh? What a piece of work. Not only has Trump managed to pull off a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, this latest stunt of his could end up costing Mitch McConnell his majority.
This isn't the first time Trump has put his foot in his mouth, so to speak. Ever since the state certified its election results - not once, not twice, but three times - he's been obsessed not with helping his party retain control of the Senate, but of overturning the outcome. And with the assistance of the law firm of Howard, Fine and Howard, AKA Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell and Lin Wood, a rather significant chunk of the Republican base has become, shall we say, convinced that not only was the 2020 election rigged, but that the January runoffs are no better.
You gotta hand it to these people; when it comes to crazy, they really go all out. What should've been a walk in the park has now become a tossup. In fact, the latest polling shows both Warnock and Ossoff with slight leads going into the last few days of the election. I bet I know what you're thinking. Why should I trust the polls this time when they pretty much sucked in November? Well, here's why. Turns out the polling out of Georgia wasn't all that bad. The RCP average had Ossoff at 47 percent going into the election. Ossoff wound up getting 47.9 percent of the vote. Similarly, the RCP average had Warnock ahead of both Loeffler and Doug Collins. Loeffler and Collins' final share of the vote was within a point and a half of their RCP average. Not bad, wouldn't you say?
Indeed, when you look at the polling in general, with a few rare exceptions - Susan Collins in Maine, Florida, the generic ballot, and, yes, once again Wisconsin - it was pretty spot on. Take a gander below:
Pennsylvania - RCP average: Biden +1.2 (48.7 - 47.5); Final results: Biden +1.2 (50.0 - 48.8) Even
North Carolina - RCP average: Trump +.2 (47.8 - 47.6); Final results: Trump +1.3 (50.0 - 48.7) + 1.1
Georgia - RCP average: Trump +1.0 (48.2 - 47.2); Final results: Biden +.3 (49.5 - 49.2) - 1.3
Arizona - RCP average: Biden +.9 (47.9 - 49.0); Final results: Biden +.3 (49.4 - 49.1) - .6
Nevada - RCP average: Biden +2.4 (48.7 - 46.3); Final results: Biden +2.7 (50.2 - 47.5) + .3
Michigan - RCP average: Biden +4.2 (50.0 - 45.8); Final results: Biden +2.8 (50.6 - 47.8) - 1.4
Minnesota - RCP average: Biden +4.3 (48.0 - 43.7); Final results: Biden +7.2 (52.6 - 45.4) + 2.9
National - RCP average: Biden +7.2 (51.2 - 44.0); Final results: Biden +4.5 (51.4 - 46.9) - 2.7
I don't know about you, but based on the above, I wouldn't bet on the polls in Georgia being wrong. In fact, I'd say they're damn accurate. With Democrats energized and Republicans scrambling and having to contend with a 74 year-old man child who can't handle defeat, I predict there will be a lot of hand ringing at the RNC when the dust settles.
Not that I give a fuck, mind you. When you lie down with a pig, you deserve to be covered in shit.
* An earlier version of this piece stated that early voting ended on Thursday. That was only true in some counties. Statewide, the early voting deadline was Friday, January 2. I have corrected the error.
Comments