Yes, you read that right. Mister cynic / Debbie Downer / glass-half-empty / run-for-the hills / devil's advocate is actually hopeful that 2021 will be better than 2020; and not just because it couldn't get any worse. Trust me, it could. No, what gives me hope are two things, primarily.
First, the vaccines. Yes, I know that Captain Bligh managed to grind Operation Warp Speed down to sub-light, to borrow a Star Trek term. But here's the thing: despite Trump's ineptitude, by the time Biden takes office, there will be three viable vaccines that, with a functioning and competent federal government in charge, will inoculate tens of millions of people by the summer. It may take longer than originally expected, but the end of this pandemic is in sight. To paraphrase Gerald Ford, "Our long national nightmare will soon be over."
And that brings me to the second reason for hope. Many are deeply concerned that the damage Trump is doing will have far-reaching consequences for our political system and will be hard to undo. While I am not minimizing those concerns and continue to worry about what could happen on January 6 and January 20, me thinks this might be much ado about nothing. Let me explain.
Of the approximately 239 million registered voters in the United States, 157 million of them cast their ballots in the November elections. According to Pew Research, 34 percent of registered voters identify as Independent, 33 percent identify as Democrat and 29 percent identify as Republican.
Thanks to Trump's claims of fraud - which have been thoroughly debunked by the judiciary and his own Department of Justice, 75 percent of Republicans now believe the election was stolen from him, while 25 percent of Independents feel the same way. Democrats, as you might expect, are confident in the results.
So let's break down the numbers, shall we?
Republicans
157 million x .29 = 45.5 million
45.5 million x .75 = 34 million voters
Independents
157 million x .34 = 53 million
53 million x .25 = 13 million voters
Totals
34 million + 13 million = 47 million voters
47 million ÷ 157 million = 30 percent
So, 30 percent of the total voters in the 2020 election believe it was rigged. That's pretty high, wouldn't you say? Well, maybe; then again, maybe not.
To put what we're talking about in perspective, almost two decades after 9/11, one in four people (25 percent) still believe the attack was an inside job. According to a study by Chapman University, more than half the people surveyed (54 percent) feel the government is concealing information from them. No amount of reasoning or logic has been able to talk them down from the ledge.
If you think that's bad, try this. According to Gallup, as of 2013, 50 years after the Kennedy assassination, 61 percent of those surveyed still believe Lee Harvey Oswald had help, be it the CIA, or the Mafia, or Castro, or some combination of the three, while only 30 percent believe he acted alone. Imagine that: an event that took place a year before the Beatles landed on our shores and a majority of people still think it was a conspiracy.
Know what? Turns out there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there. Pick any one and you'll find a considerable portion of the American public buys into it. Atlantis existed: 60 percent; UFOs are alien spaceships: 40 percent; Big Foot is real: 20 percent.
So you see, while 30 percent may seem high, in the grand scheme of things, it's not as high as you might expect. In fact, it's only five points higher than the percentage of people who believe 9/11 was an inside job and 31 points lower than the percentage of people who believe Oswald had help assassinating Kennedy.
Now don't get me wrong. I'm fully aware that there's a big difference between people who believe in Big Foot and angry voters who feel their guy was robbed. But while I don't dismiss the inherent danger of that many people insisting the election was stolen, I actually think it's a bigger problem for Republicans than for the country as a whole. That's what you get for allowing a sociopath to take over your party. I have absolutely no pity for these people. None.
It's important to understand that once Trump becomes a private citizen, he loses all the protections the office of the presidency affords him, along with the authority to subvert justice. In other words, he will be subject to criminal investigations at the state level that cannot be thwarted by a presidential pardon, some of which could land him in prison. And guess what? They don't allow inmates at Sing Sing to have Twitter accounts, or even cell phones for that matter.
Bottom line, cheer up, my buckaroos; there's much to be hopeful about in 2021. If yours truly can see the glass as half full, there's no excuse for you.
Comments