At this point in the 2016 presidential race, there were those in Hillary Clinton's campaign who thought that Ohio was in play. The RCP average showed her ahead of Trump by 2.4 points. So rather than shore up states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which would've given them the election, they diverted precious resources into a state they didn't need to force the Trump campaign into playing defense. As it turned out, Trump not only won Ohio - by 8 points, no less - he captured the three aforementioned states, as well, along with the presidency. So much for being in play.
This year, the RCP average shows Joe Biden ahead of Trump by a much smaller margin: .6 percent, in fact. And like Clinton four years ago, the Biden campaign also thinks they have a shot at the Buckeye state. So much so that Biden made a campaign stop in Toledo, Ohio today. Is Team Biden making the same mistake their predecessors made?
They very well could be.
Look, I know that the polling for Biden across the map has been far more consistent and resilient than it was for Clinton, so I'm not opposed to opening up new fronts, especially since both the DNC and the Biden campaign are flush with cash. You gotta spend it somewhere. But I'm still not convinced that the polling in Michigan and Wisconsin is accurate, so rather than go for the cherry on top, if I were calling the shots, I'd spend the next three weeks keying on the following six states: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with the emphasis on the first three.
And here's why. Florida, North Carolina and Arizona all start counting their mail-in ballots early. Florida 22 days before the election; North Carolina and Arizona two weeks before. It's entirely possible all three will be decided on election night. If Biden has a good turnout in those states, he can wrap up the 2020 election before Trump and Bill Barr know what hit them.
I'll explain. If you look at the above map I've constructed from the website 270towin.com, you'll notice that I subtracted all the swing states, as well as the Nebraska and Maine second districts, that are probably not going to be called on election night. If we assume that Biden will carry all the blue states and Trump will carry all the red states, all Biden has to do in order to cross the necessary 270 electoral vote threshold is win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Even if Trump runs the table with the rest - and that's highly unlikely - he still falls short.
Winning these three states would ostensibly undercut whatever legal arguments Trump's lawyers might make. Trump's whole argument from day one has been that the country needs to know who the winner of the election is on election night. Remember this tweet from July? "Must know Election results on the night of the Election, not days, months, or even years later!" Even a conservative Supreme Court is going to have a hard time believing there was a "rigged" election when the election results were known hours after the polls closed.
That's why it's essential that the Biden campaign keep their eyes on the prize and not get distracted. Ohio would be a nice pick up for Biden, but it isn't necessary in order to win the presidency.
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