I was going to wait until next Tuesday to write this piece, but with millions of people already voting, I couldn't put it off any longer.
Well it's finally here: the two-minute warning. Election day, week or month, if you will, is practically upon us and the fate of this country and that of the entire free world hinges on what voters in a handful of swing states will do.
Joe Biden continues to lead Trump by wide margins: 9 points nationally and just under 5 points in the battleground states. Dems also continue to poll well in the Senate races. According to Nate Silver's 538, they have a 70 percent chance of regaining the majority this January.
Everywhere you look, things seem as they should. Trump's abysmal approval numbers are reeking havoc on his reelection chances. A majority of voters blame him for the Coronavirus pandemic which has resulted in more than 215,000 fatalities, over one hundred thousand small business failures and millions of still unemployed workers. His reality TV presidency is wearing thin on an electorate that is growing exhausted with the constant barrage of tweets and scapegoating.
And yet I remain "cautiously" optimistic. A piece in The New York Times by Thomas Edsall, titled oddly enough, "Biden Is Not Out of the Woods," is a sobering reminder that we shouldn't count our chickens just yet. In it, Edsall notes that Republicans outpaced Democrats in new voter registrations in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida by more than 2 to 1. And since first time voters tend to be ignored by most pollsters, it's quite possible they aren't showing up in the data we're seeing.
Then there's the issue of mail-in ballots. Democratic voters are almost two and a half times more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. That means that the chances of ballots being rejected because they were either filled out improperly or were returned without the required inner secrecy envelope are far greater for Democrats. The latter poses the biggest problem because unlike improperly filled out ballots which can be cured by simply contacting the voter, in most states, naked ballots - as they are called - are required to be tossed out immediately. This past spring more than a half million primary voters had their ballots rejected. With the prospect of four to five times the number of people voting by mail this fall, you can just imagine the ramifications.
And we haven't even discussed what shenanigans this president and his attorney general have in store after the election in an attempt to alter the outcome if it appears as though it isn't going their way. God help us if that happens. Suffice to say, nothing is etched in stone, which is why I'm making this appeal.
Look, I am not going to waste my time trying to change the minds of voters who still believe this president is doing a good job. I've seen the movie Animal House enough times to know that no amount of reasoning was ever going to persuade Kevin Bacon not to get his ass paddled in that frat house. Some people just can't resist saying, "Thank you, sir, may I have another?" To them I would say, "Go with God. You deserve everything you get."
And as far as the conservative Christian community is concerned, words alone cannot begin to express my profound grief and disappointment with this group. I'm not sure what perverse logic it was that convinced them to sell out their faith for a man who is anathema to all they hold near and dear. What I can say with certainty is this: when they depart this earth and meet their maker, the words "But her emails" aren't going to cut it.
No, I'm going to direct all my energy and words towards you: the ones who for the last four years have railed against Trump and all that he stands for. This is your moment of truth. This is your chance to send this demigod back to his Tower of Mordor. The ball, as they say, is in your court.
I don't want to hear any more bullshit about all the things Biden is not or how he doesn't inspire you. Knock it off. As I've said before this isn't a fucking rock concert. Bernie is not on the ballot, neither is Elizabeth Warren, nor for that matter Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Progressives, this is not the time for a purity test. Benito Trumpolini is weeks away from possibly turning this Republic into an autocracy. If that happens, not having Medicare for All will be the least of your worries.
And don't even think about voting third party. This election is a binary choice between two men. One, an admittedly flawed and less than riveting relic of a time gone by; the other a sociopath who's systematically destroying this country. If that choice isn't crystal clear to you by now, I'm not sure what else I can say that would convince you. But know this much: if you choose not to vote this time around, don't even dream of blaming Biden or the DNC if Trump wins. You knew the stakes and you made your bed. Lie in it.
Look, if I had my druthers, I'd much rather have Obama run for a third term. But he can't. So we both have to bite down hard and swallow. Who knows, maybe Biden will be unable to finish out his term in office and Kamala Harris will take over for him. It's happened before. Which would you rather see in 2024: a Harris / Warren administration running for a second term or a Pence / Haley ticket vying for a third term of Trumpism?
Consider that while you're vacillating, Trump's supporters won't be. Starting to make sense now? I thought it might.
Here's the deal. If all of us vote, he's gone. We outnumber them. Remember that.
If you've already voted, good. A grateful nation thanks you. If you haven't and are thinking of voting by mail, make sure you read the instructions on your ballot. If it says you need a second signature then get one: a neighbor, a friend, a relative, anyone will do. Make sure your signature matches what's on your identification. Now's not the time to get cute or creative. If the signature on your ID looks like chicken scratch then sign the ballot that way. And for God's sake, send the damn ballot back in the secured envelope. No naked ballots. There's a reason they gave you that envelope. Use it. Don't give them the excuse they need to disenfranchise you.
Spring for the fifty-five cents to ensure that your ballot will be treated as first-class mail and arrive sooner rather than later. And speaking of arrival times, please don't wait until the last minute to send back your ballot. We still don't know which way the courts will rule on ballots that arrive after the election. It's possible they'll be counted; it's also possible they won't be. Why take the chance? If you have your ballot filled out and ready to go, get it out now.
If you plan on voting is person, then vote early if possible. We are already seeing record numbers of people waiting in line for hours to cast their vote. Imagine how much worse it's going to be on election day. Bring someone with you so in case you have to use the restroom you won't lose your place in line. Do NOT be intimidated. Remember, once you're on that line they must let you vote. It's the law, even in Republican-led states. And another thing, even if you requested and received a mail-in ballot, you can still choose to vote in person. A request for a ballot does not preclude you from the option of in person voting. What you can't do is vote by mail and in person. That would be voting twice and that's a crime, despite what Trump said.
And please don't forget the down-ballot races. A president Biden isn't going to be able to accomplish much without a Democratic House and Senate. There are many House races that are toss-ups and could go either way. As of now, RCP has 215 seats that are either lean, likely or safe Democrat, four shy of the total needed for a majority. And in the Senate races, Sara Gideon, Cal Cunningham and Theresa Greenfield are barely ahead of their respective opponents: Susan Collins, Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst. Democrats need at least 50 seats to turn Mitch McConnell into a minority leader.
Now is the time, people. It's all hands on deck. Your country needs you more than ever. This is the most consequential election since the founding of the Republic and every vote counts. Don't make the mistake of thinking your vote won't matter. Remember, George Bush won Florida and the 2000 election by a measly 537 votes. I'm sure there were some people in the Sunshine State who felt stupid afterwards because they didn't vote. Don't make the same mistake they made.
Hindsight is a luxury none of us can afford.
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