With just over six weeks to go until election week(s), it's time to take a look at where things stand at the moment. Early in-person voting has already begun in several states, including Minnesota - Michigan will begin early voting on Monday - and some states like North Carolina have already started receiving mail-in ballots. In a sense, the election has already begun.
So where are we?
Joe Biden is still leading both nationally and in the all-important swing states. Yes, the RCP average has him up only 6.2 percent - down from a high of 8 only a week ago. But that's mainly because of a poll from Rasmussen which shows Trump leading by 1. If you subtract that poll - and it's a stretch to even call what Rasmussen does polling - Biden's lead is 7 percent. If that were to hold, it would mean a popular vote margin somewhere in the neighborhood of 8.5 million votes. That's as close to a landslide as you can get. More importantly, he's ahead in the battleground states 3.9 percent, up from 3.6 percent a week ago. And the battleground states are where this election will be decided.
First, the good news:
1. As I've been saying for quite some time, Biden's lead has been incredibly resilient, far more resilient than Hillary Clinton's lead four years ago. Indeed, at this point in 2016, Hillary was virtually tied with Trump both in the two-way and four-way polling. The RCP average had her up .9 and .7 respectively. The smallest lead Biden has had over Trump was 4 percent, and that was back in January during the Impeachment trial. From the moment he announced he was running for president, Biden has never trailed.
2. Biden is starting to pull away in some of the swing states. Recent polling out of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Arizona show him with healthy leads that are outside the margin of error. RCP also has him ahead in Pennsylvania by 4.3 percent. While I remain somewhat skeptical about Minnesota - there's no way Biden is ahead by 10 points in that state - what the overall numbers tell us is that Trump's "law and order / Apocalypse Now / the Dems are coming to destroy your way of life" message just isn't resonating. That's the trouble with being a president who constantly cries wolf. After a while, most people just tune you out.
3. It appears as though third-party candidates aren't going to muck things up this time around. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida - all essential swing states - will not be allowing third-party candidates to appear on the ballots this fall. And even in those states where they do appear, their polling is weak at best. Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party are collectively polling at 2.8 percent, far lower than the combined 6.6 percent of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein four years ago. And with regards to Kanye West, it remains to be seen what impact, if any, he will have on the final vote totals. The presumption by Trump supporters that he would automatically hurt Biden is racist. It implies that African Americans vote only on the basis of skin color and not on the issues. If anything, West's presence on the ballot would more likely hurt Trump since African Americans who find West an appealing alternative are probably more in line with the GOP. Bottom line: there's no such thing as a monolithic voter bloc.
4. The percentage of undecided voters - that is those who are still on the fence - is considerably smaller than it was in 2016. At this time four years ago, Hillary was at 41 percent in the four-way polling and 45 percent in the two-way polling. As the election drew near, the undecided vote broke heavily in Trump's favor and that was enough for him to eke out an electoral college win, despite losing the popular vote. Biden is at 48.8 percent in the four-way polling and 49.3 percent in the two-way polling. Even if Trump got 75 percent of the undecided vote, it probably wouldn't be enough to save him.
5. The down-ballot races appear to be going well for Democrats. Susan Collins (Maine), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cory Gardner (Colorado) and Martha McSally (Arizona) are all trailing their respective Democratic opponents, with McSally and Collins considerably outside the margin of error at 6.7 and 6.2 percent respectively. Joni Ernst (Iowa) and Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) are hanging on for dear life. Both are ostensibly tied in their respective races. Hopefully, the DNC has taken note and is actively spending money in both states. If Democrats can flip those seats along with the other four, even with Doug Jones (Alabama) losing, they would hold a 52-48 Senate majority.
Now for the bad news:
1. We are already starting to see problems with mail-in ballots in North Carolina. According to Kaleigh Rogers of fivethirtyeight.com, "Black voters’ ballots are being rejected at more than four times the rate of White voters, according to the state’s numbers. Black voters have mailed in 13,747 ballots, with 642 rejected, or 4.7 percent. White voters have cast 60,954 mail-in ballots, with 681 — or 1.1 percent — rejected." While this is still a very small number of ballots, it portends a potentially catatsrophic outcome this fall. Both the Biden campaign and the DNC need to educate their supporters on how to properly fill out a mail-in ballot to ensure that their votes count. Perhaps a tutorial could be put together. Remember, not all states allow for "vote curing" like North Carolina. In a lot of states, it's one strike and you're out. With that in mind, it might behoove Democrats to encourage voters who can do so safely, to vote in person. Most states allow early voting, and properly done it is a far-more reliable method of voting than filling out a mail-in ballot that could potentially arrive late - hello Postal Service - or be filled out wrong and get rejected. Just sayin'.
2. Florida remains problematic for Democrats. Currently, Biden is barely ahead of Trump by 1.6 percent, down from 8.4 percent on July 24. The problem is the Hispanic vote. In short, the Biden campaign was late to the game in the state and is now playing catch up. One poll - Monmouth - shows him polling at 58 percent among Hispanics. That's slightly lower than the 62 percent Hillary Clinton managed to get in 2016 and Hillary lost the state. What's saving Biden's bacon at the moment is the senior vote. In 2016, Trump got 57 percent of it. This time around he's only getting 49 percent. Trump desperately needs Florida. Without it, there's virtually no path for him to get to 270 electoral votes. For Biden to prevail in the Sunshine State, he must improve his numbers among Hispanics and continue to build momentum with seniors. That's where Michael Bloomberg comes in. The self-made billionaire has pledged to spend upwards of $100 million in the state. Even for Florida, that's a lot of dough.
3. As we get closer and closer to November and Trump's numbers don't improve, he will get more and more desperate. I fully expect him, with the help of William Barr, to deploy the National Guard to prevent mail-in ballots from being counted in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. He will then declare himself the winner. The DNC and the Biden campaign must be prepared for an all-out assault from the federal government, the likes of which we've never seen in this country. The Republic itself is at stake. If Trump gets away with stealing this election, then we are finished as a Democracy.
Apart from that, though, things are shaping up pretty nicely. Of course, we still have 45 days to go; anything can happen. Nothing is etched in stone. The debates are right around the corner, and let's not forget the curse of 2016 is hanging over our heads like the sword of Damocles. But all things being equal, I'd much rather be Biden and the Democrats than Trump and the Republicans, and, no, not just because I can sleep better at night knowing I'm on the right side of history. But because it's always better to be ahead in the fourth quarter than behind.
As always, the only score that counts in the final one.
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