Question, what do 17, 15, 10, 6 and 2 add up to? Answer, zero. No, this isn't some weird example of the new math that's being foisted upon today's kids; it's the grim reality awaiting the Democratic Party this summer in Milwaukee. Because those numbers represent the RCP national polling averages for Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer, respectively. In the world that you and I live in, they would total 50. But in the world that matters - the political arena - they amount to jack shit. Hence, the number zero.
This is getting monotonous, people. Another state, another victory by a candidate who still hasn't cracked the 50 percent threshold, yet now has the inside track to become the nominee of this party. And if you're still holding onto the "it's way too early to panic" line, you're as delusional as the Bernie Bros who actually think he's the second coming of FDR and that he's going to usher in this sweeping revolution that will transform the United States into an oasis. Jesus, crack addicts are more lucid.
It's time to face reality. Unless a couple of these center-lane candidates drop out of the race before Super Tuesday, Bernie Sanders might very well wrap up the nomination by the end of March. I'll explain. According to the latest RCP polling average, Sanders is the only candidate who's above the 15 percent threshold in California. He's currently at 26.3 percent, while Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg are at 14.8 and 14.5 percent respectively. Biden was at 23 percent only a month ago and Bloomberg peaked at 16.5 percent before his "exhilarating" debate performance in Las Vegas last week. That means he could walk away with all 415 of the state's delegates.
As for the rest of the Super Tuesday contests, Sanders is either ahead or tied in most of them. In fact, he just took the lead over Elizabeth Warren in her home state of Massachusetts. It's not inconceivable that he could have a commanding lead over Biden and Bloomberg come April. Yes, he might not technically reach the magic number of 1991 pledged delegates by the convention, but he would make a strong argument for why he and not Biden or Bloomberg should get the nomination.
I've sat in enough traffic jams to know what one looks like. And right now, this looks like a five-car pile up on the L.I.E. during the rush hour. Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer: at least two of these candidates need to do the right thing and head for the exit ramp, and fast. If I had my druthers, I'd pick Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Why them? Why not Bloomberg and Biden? It comes down to two reasons: 1. African American support; and 2. overall support.
Let's be honest for a minute. While I personally like both Buttigieg and Klobuchar and believe either would make an outstanding president, the inescapable truth is that both are polling horribly among African Americans. Buttigieg is at 4 percent and Klobuchar is at zero. To put that in perspective, even Trump is at 2 percent among African Americans, and in 2016, he got approximately 6 percent of the overall black vote. There's no way in hell Democrats can win a general election against the most racist incumbent in the nation's history with a nominee who is ostensibly no better than a coin toss with their most essential voter demographic.
Then there's the overall polling. No matter how you slice it, Buttigieg and Klobuchar have no realistic path to the nomination. Let's look at California and Texas, the two biggest states voting on Super Tuesday. Buttigieg is polling at 11 percent in California and 7 percent in Texas, while Klobuchar is polling at 5.5 percent in California and 6 percent in Texas. If these numbers were to hold up, neither candidate would receive a single delegate out of either state, however they could potentially cost Bloomberg and Biden a shot at winning a sizable chunk of them. In other words, they would be nothing more than spoilers. That's all.
What about Steyer, you ask? Well for starters, I'm not sure which lane he travels in: the center or left. But either way, while he's polling strongly in South Carolina - 16.5 percent according to the RCP average - he's barely a blip on the radar screen as far as Super Tuesday is concerned. My hunch is he'll call it a night as soon as the bean counters that work for him convince him that he has no chance at the nomination. He might be rich, but he's no Bloomberg.
With Buttigieg and Klobuchar both out, this ostensibly becomes a three-man race. Let's not forget that at some point in the near future, it's going to dawn on Elizabeth Warren that she has no path to the nomination either. Once she drops out, probably after Super Tuesday, the vast majority of her supporters will flock to Sanders, thus increasing his lead. You didn't seriously think they were going to Biden and Bloomberg, did you?
Time is running out, folks. South Carolina votes this Saturday, followed by Super Tuesday on March 3. For the past three years, all we've heard from Democrats is how Republicans need to put country first. Well, now would be a good time for Democrats to practice what they've been preaching. Look, both Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have distinguished themselves throughout this primary process. Both have made what I believe are valid arguments for why they should be the nominee. However, neither has shown the ability to build the broad coalition necessary to win the nomination and the general election, and neither are polling well enough to actually win any states of import. Their continued presence in this race can only ensure one thing: that the man both have been adamant has no hope of beating Trump in November ends up becoming the party's nominee.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. A Sanders nomination could not only cost Democrats a shot at winning the presidency and the Senate, it could cost them their House majority, as well.
And that's about as desperate as it gets.
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