Look, the last few days have not been good, I'll admit. Iowa was a clusterfuck, Trump got acquitted in the Senate, Gallup has him polling at 49 percent - the highest he's been since his first week in office - and based on the reviews from last night's debate, the Democratic candidates engaged in yet another food fight that would've made John Belushi proud. But while a lot of people are headed for the lifeboats, I'm not yet ready to abandon ship, and here's why.
Yes, Iowa was a joke, but it's a state with, what, 41 delegates? By the time we get to the convention, I guarantee you no one is going to be talking about this. Frankly, the bigger problem is how the DNC is still letting two of the whitest states in the nation - states that more closely resemble 19th century America than they do 21st century America - go first. They'd be much better off letting a state like Nevada kick off the campaign. Or even better, just have three Super Tuesdays in a row. The breakdown can be as follows: 20 in January, 20 in March and the balance in May. That would leave two months until the convention. And while we're at it, it's time to abolish caucuses altogether. They are, by far, the least democratic way of choosing a winner. One voter, one vote; that's the way it should be.
Regarding the acquittal, did anyone seriously think that this president was going to be removed from office? Okay, so maybe I held out some small hope. Hey, I can't always be a cynic. But as I wrote in my last piece, the GOP is now owned by Trump, lock, stock and barrel. The fact is this outcome was pre-determined from the moment it started in the House last year. And as I also wrote in that piece, Democrats really had no choice but to impeach. The facts were self evident and uncontested.
As for the polling, it's basically one poll from the same outfit that in 2012 predicted Mitt Romney would beat Barack Obama in the presidential election. It was an outlier then, it's an outlier now. Most of the other polls show Trump somewhere between 42 and 46 percent, a little higher than he was a couple of months ago, but still way below where a sitting president should be going into a reelection. Eight years ago at this point, the RCP average for Obama was 48.8 percent. Trump is currently siting at 45.5. And that's after the best week of his presidency. Still not encouraged? Try this: the RCP Generic Ballot currently has Democrats at plus 6.3 percent, just one point less than it was in November of 2018, when they flipped the House. Think about that the next time you're freaking out.
Something else to remember about the polling. After his acquittal in the Senate in 1999, Bill Clinton apologized to the nation for his conduct and vowed to work with both parties to pass meaningful legislation. This, more than anything else, was what allowed him to survive the impeachment process, and to this day he remains one of the more popular figures in American politics. Trump, by comparison, is determined to go on a revenge tour. He has already fired Lt. Colonel Alexander Vindman and E.U. ambassador Gordon Sondland for testifying against him. No doubt others will follow. This petty vindictiveness will eventually backfire on him and begin to take its toll on the electorate, particularly among independents. Mark my words, two months from now, his approval rating will be back in the low 40s where it belongs.
The only concern I have going into the election is the way in which these debates have deteriorated to the point that they've become nothing but shouting matches and soundbites. I find myself growing more and more frustrated at what I'm hearing. We still don't know how much Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All plan is going to cost, but by all means let's throw a hissy fit over Pete Buttigieg charging a thousand dollars per bottle of wine at a fund-raising event in California. It's a good thing I don't own a gun. At some point, one of these candidates is likely to win the nomination. I say likely only because Michael Bloomberg wasn't on that debate stage and he's been steadily rising in the polls of late. The way I see it, with the Super Delegates unable to pledge until the second ballot, we could be in store for a brokered convention this summer. Get your antacid tablets now.
Look, what I'm saying is don't despair, people. All is not lost. If this were a football game, we'd be halfway through the 3rd quarter right about now. We still have quite a ways to go. Think about it: the economy, at least on a macro level, is the best it's been in years, and yet Trump still can't crack 50 percent. I'm starting to doubt if it will ever factor into most voter's thinking come election day. Seriously, if the economy were really that important, then why didn't Hillary win the 2016 election? Obama had six consecutive years of solid GDP growth, the last three better than Trump's first three. So much for "It's the economy, stupid."
The bottom line is that Trump remains the most polarizing president in the nation's history and, despite his claims to the contrary, most Americans believe that what he did was wrong. The "perfect call" line isn't working, trust me. What people are looking for is an excuse to fire him; it's up to Democrats to make sure they provide one by November.
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