Friday, October 19, 2012

Weathering the Storm

It's looking more and more like Barack Obama may have dodged a bullet.  National polls taken in the days after his second debate with Mitt Romney seem to indicate a 2 point bump for the President.  Polls in the swing states also point towards a slight, but definitive, move upward.  As things stand right now, he has leads in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada of anywhere from 2 to 4 points.  Furthermore, at no time did he relinquish those leads, even in the days after the Denver debate.

What so many progressives feared might happen after that dreadful debate performance has apparently worked its way through the electorate.  Obama suffered some damage and, in the process, his opponent gained some badly needed momentum after several horrendous months of consistent missteps.  But the net result of all the back and forth is that we are right back where we were prior to the conventions.  If the election were held today, Obama would have 277 electoral votes.  Far from a landslide, but 7 more than he needs for victory.

Barack Obama, the luckiest candidate in over a generation, has apparently weathered the Denver storm and is now in an excellent position to build on his lead as he heads into the last two weeks of the campaign.  Virginia and Colorado are still tossups and could wind up in the blue column, as is New Hampshire.

The only exception to the seemingly good news is a Gallup poll which shows Romney ahead nationally by 6 points.  It is the only poll taken in the last couple of days which shows the former governor of Massachusetts with a lead.  Even Rasmussen, a right-leaning pollster, has the race tied.

Of course the logical question that begs to be asked is what would've happened had Obama actually showed up that night in Denver.  Would he have a commanding lead instead of a slight one at this juncture?  Perhaps. Unfortunately we will never know, but this much is certain: an awful lot of Democrats are breathing a whole lot easier now then they were a week ago.

Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you.  For the time being, Barack Obama seems to have gotten the bear.


Link:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html

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