With all the talk about what impact Paul Ryan will have on
the presidential race, the $64,000 question Democrats are looking to answer is
what will happen with the House and Senate.
I will address the Senate in due time. The House, though, is really difficult to get
a read on. At present, Republicans hold a
49 seat advantage. In order to win back
control, Democrats would have to net 25 seats.
That would give them a 218-217 lead.
What are the odds of that happening? It depends on who you talk to. If you’re a Democratic pollster, Paul Ryan’s
presence on the presidential ticket is a wedge issue that can be used
effectively against the GOP, especially the Tea Party freshmen (all 87 of
them). And then there’s the overall
approval rating of Congress. Some polls
have it in the single digits. With
Republicans holding the majority of seats, that should mean substantial gains
for the Dems.
The problem with that logic is two-fold. One, public disapproval of Congress appears
to be equally divided between both parties.
While that means losses for the GOP, Democratic incumbents are sure to
take it on the chin as well. Second, and
most importantly, 2012, unlike the last three election cycles, isn’t shaping up
as a wave election.
Put simply a wave election is when the majority party
basically gets the heave-ho with the minority party emerging virtually
unscathed. In ’06 and ’08 Democrats
cleaned up at the expense of Republicans; in the 2010 midterms, the tables were
turned. From 1986 to 2004, however, there
was only one wave election: 1994.
Republicans netted 53 seats that year to take control of the House. They also took control of the Senate.
The prevailing logic among many pollsters like Nate Silver is
that Democrats will pick up a few seats, but fall short of retaking the
House. Most of those gains will come in districts
that have historically voted Democrat, but got caught up in the 2010 wave. In New York, Anthony Weiner’s old seat will
probably flip back to Democratic control.
However, the 23rd and 26th districts, which have
historically been Republican and which Democrats won, will also flip back to
GOP control in 2012.
If I were a betting man, I’d say that Democrats will net
between 10 and 15 seats, enough to send a message, but unfortunately even a one
seat majority in the House is enough to wield power. Unlike the Senate, the House doesn’t need to
concern itself with filibusters or having super majorities to pass legislation.
Of course anything can happen over the next two and a half
months. The House vote on the Ryan
budget may come back to bite many Republicans come November. If that’s the case, then prospects for a
Democratic surge improve dramatically.
We will know more after the Republican convention when Paul Ryan’s
impact will be more apparent at the local level.
Stay tuned.
Link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/do-democrats-have-a-shot-at-the-house/
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