Now that a judge – a
Republican judge – has decided to uphold Pennsylvania’s draconian voter ID
law, that state now joins three other swing states that require voters to show
some kind of proof of citizenship in order to exercise their right to vote: they
are Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania's
is by far the toughest of the voter ID laws because it requires a photo
ID. While Wisconsin’s law also requires
a photo ID, it’s currently in limbo thanks to three state judges who blocked
the photo provision of it. All four of
these states are crucial to President Obama’s reelection hopes.
Proponents of these laws claim that they are necessary to
prevent voter fraud and protect the integrity of the election process. Opponents see it merely as an attempt to
suppress voter turnout among key constituents – the poor and the elderly – many
of whom do not have the proper ID necessary and who, not coincidentally, tend
to vote Democrat.
The truth is that voter fraud in the United States is about
as prevalent as being struck by lightning on a sunny day. In other words, it just doesn’t happen. Voter ID proponents know this full well. They’ve even admitted publicly that they have
no proof to back up their ridiculous claims.
So why come up with a solution for a problem that doesn’t exist?
Two words: electoral math.
Republicans have taken a close look at the map of the country and have
concluded that the future doesn’t look all that promising for them. In virtually every key constituency, with the
exception of white men, they are trailing; in some of those groups – African
Americans and Hispanics – they are trailing badly. Guess which groups are increasing and which
group is decreasing as a percentage of the population? And you thought Republicans didn’t know how
to use a calculator.
How bad is the problem?
Some GOP insiders believe that within the next two to three presidential
election cycles – 2020, 2024 – states like Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and
Texas, long Republican strongholds, could be tossups. Florida, currently a swing state, might soon be
as Democratic as New Jersey. When you take
into account that the populations of those states are growing faster than the
rest of the country, you can almost understand why the Republicans are
desperate. Imagine the entire east and
west coast and most of the southwest in Democratic control. As John Lennon once sang, it’s easy if you
try.
You know the old saying, if you can’t beat ‘em, eliminate
‘em. Well that’s exactly what the
Republican Party is trying to do. They
are attempting to stave off a very dire predicament for at least one or
possibly two election cycles in the hopes that they can craft a message that
doesn’t alienate two thirds of the electorate.
By holding down the vote somewhat in these key states, their hope is
that they can pick off one or two of them, get their people into power and then
bide their time until someone with a message that is palpable can come along
and galvanize most of the country, or, failing that, ensure that any electoral
threat to them is minimized.
With respect to the former, there are no Dwight D.
Eishenhowers or Teddy Roosevelts in the GOP these days, nor are there likely to
be for the foreseeable future. And that
is the real problem that besets the Republican Party today. The leaders of this party have drifted so far
out of the mainstream of society that even Ronald Reagan himself would find it
difficult fitting in. So that leaves the
latter as their only viable option.
But the problem with suppressing voter turnout is that it is
a temporary fix to a long-term problem. Even
if the GOP manages to steal Florida (like they did in 2000) or Pennsylvania or
Wisconsin or Virginia, or perhaps all of them, the simple fact is time is not
on their side, and deep down they know it.
The Tea Party may be insane but the Republican establishment isn’t. They have crunched the numbers countless
times and the numbers don’t lie.
Think about it, even with an anemic recovery and a
vulnerable President in the White House, the best that Mitt Romney can do, even
with all that Koch money behind him, is to stay within striking distance in
most of the swing states. Obama still
leads him in virtually every national poll.
Can you imagine what the polls would be like if the economy were doing
better?
We could be looking at the beginning of the end of the
Republican Party as we know it. It will
take some time, but, unless they change their tune and start to attract a more
diverse group of voters, extinction awaits the GOP.
Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_ID_laws
http://articles.cnn.com/2008-08-13/us/census.minorities_1_hispanic-population-census-bureau-white-population?_s=PM:US
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/30/1114634/-Projecting-Texas-The-Coming-Democratic-Plurality
http://www.alternet.org/story/155058/demographic_trends_favor_democrats_in_years_ahead
http://www.floridafuturessurvey.com/2012/07/political-trends-issues-independents.html
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